I've been puzzling out what's going on with the update 'method' (I'll call it that the avoid confusion with the windows usage of processes) in 2018, and comparing notes with Trevor via PM. So, a summary to date . .
1. the 2018 update method is NOT a process or a service as windows defines them. You won't see any related item in the list of processes or services using task manager or msconfig.
2. BUT the auto updates per the check for updates item in the Help list IS a scheduled task, setup by an entry in the start menu task list. A part screenshot of the one in my task scheduler is attached FYI (the red rectangle around the details), and this is for the auto update daily item (the install default)
and you should note the day and time carefully. It doesn't run 'automatically' - eg, when the PC starts or when VS starts - but at a fixed cycle based on the day, day of week, or day of month at a time when VS was installed, or when you last changed the auto update to one of the three options available. Changing the auto update schedule in VS directly changes the task schedule details. So, having the PC on when a scheduled task is triggered is a "hit and miss" thing: if the PC isn't on at the scheduled time, it will get re-scheduled for the next day event at the specified time.
During a re-installation cycle, Trevor was able to observe the auto updater when it ran with an update to process - and there is feedback on the screen when that happens.
3. Which leaves the manual update options in that "check for update" list. This the way I do it, because I never leave my PC turned on, and when it's on I may or may not run VS. Periodically I check the forum and when I see a notice of an update available, I go and get it - manually.
And the response to that manual method is what I've reported on in this thread (for sp3) and the one for sp2. And the evidence thus far suggests that the manual 'method' runs differently in some parts compared to the auto update: when there is an update to get, there is no screen feedback for one. I suspect that the users who have experienced the same thing as I did - click Ok and nothing seems to happen - are doing updates the same way, ie manually.
Still thinking about what to do next but it would be handy to know if my surmise that using a manual update approach gives the reported result is correct. For those who experienced it, please advise.