What is the future of HD video editing for amateurs ?

[pyvo]

There are plenty of discussions on this and other forums that mention that AVCHD is fine for diplaying but very difficult to edit with acceptable results.

The general consensus seems to be to stick with HDV - which is what I chose to do about 1 year ago when I upgraded from SD miniDV. I am now beginning to wonder whether it was a wise choice - but then what was the alternative ?

Sony have now decided not to replace their HDV range of amateur camcorders (stopping at HC9) leaving the only real choice in AVCHD (or forking out a fortune for a semi-professional camcorder). I'd love to see the results of the new XR500 series but it seems totally incompatible with all the kit that I have invested in over the years.

After the demise of UMSP and HDV and exhorbitant prices of any remaining 'real' editing software such as Premiere CS*, what is the future for keen amateurs on an amateur's budget ?
Are we being 'nudged out' because the results are getting too good ?

Bring on UMSP 9 and HDV camcorders with XMOR technology at reasonable prices, that's what I say !!
(As John Lennon said, "You may say that I'm a dreamer - but I'm not the only one")

What do you think ?

Thanks for your impressions
pyvo

Kit:
Recently
Sony HC7, Sony AW11M (Pentium Duo 2.26GHz) on Vista, reluctantly Premiere Elements 4 but only because it came with the PC and I cannot load my UMSP7.2 onto Vista (yes I could do a dual boot...)
but previously
Sony PC109, Pentium IV 3.0GHz HT on WinXP sp3 and UMSP7.2 (imho, this is THE BEST EVER editing software except for the fact that it won't do HD), UVS up to v5 and UDVMFv5 - all still in use for SD DVDs

[Black Lab]

I was just recently in the market for a new camcorder. I've been on the HD fence for a long time. Sure HD TV is great, but how many people have the capability to play Blueray discs? Not many. But if I don't buy an HD cam I just know that Blueray will slash their prices in half tomorrow and everyone will buy one.

Ok, so I decided I'm going the HD route. But which one? HDV, with the old-fashioned mini-dv tapes, or brand-spanking new AVCHD that you need a Ferrari of a computer to use? I also wanted CCD censors, not the CMOS that the amateur cams seem to be going too (smaller and cheaper). Try finding a cam with CCD censors nowadays. Well anyway, if I buy the cam I really want I can't afford the Ferrari, so I'm going with HDV.

As you pointed out, the choices for an amateur level HDV cam are pretty slim. AVCHD cams, without the tape mechanism of HDV, are much smaller and appeal more to the amateur shooter. I, on the other hand, was looking for something "more professional". My camcorder choice was the Canon XH-A1s. It lets me record in SD for the now, and HD for the future.

So to answer your question, for amateur cams I think AVCHD is here to stay. They're smaller and cheaper, and most people who buy those types of cams don't really care about the editing part of it. For those that do care about the editing end of it, I think the technology of the AVCHD cams has outpaced the editing apps. Maybe they'll catch up before the next great cam is rolled out.